Wednesday December 16, 2015

At 4:30 am EST the UK will release Claimant Count Change. Expected at 0.9K after a prior of 3.3K. Set it up on GBPUSD with a trigger of 15K.




At 10:30 am EDT the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories. Check expected number a couple of minutes before the data comes out and use a trigger of 7. Prior reading is -3.6 Mb. Read this article to get some statistics.




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Analysts Forecast 1.4 Million-Barrel Fall in Crude Stocks

Published: Dec 15, 2015



By Nicole Friedman





NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to decrease in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.



Estimates from 11 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 1.4 million barrels, on average, in the week ended Dec. 11.



Nine analysts expect stockpiles to decline, while two expect an increase. Forecasts range from a rise of 2 million barrels to a drop of 3.2 million barrels.



The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.



Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels, according to analysts. Nine analysts expect an increase, with two expecting a decline. Estimates range from a rise of 3.5 million barrels to a drop of 2 million barrels.



Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels. Nine analysts expect a gain, while another two see a fall. Forecasts range from a drop of 1 million barrels to a gain of 3 million barrels.



Refinery use is seen rising 0.5 percentage point to 93.6% of capacity, based on EIA data. Eight analysts expect a gain, while one sees a fall, one sees no change and one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a drop of 1 point to a rise of 1 point.



The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for that week showed a 2.3-million-barrel rise in crude supplies, an 89,000-barrel increase in gasoline stocks and a 1.8-million-barrel decline in distillate inventories, according to a market participant.





Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use

Again Capital -1.7 0.2 2.2 0.7

Citi Futures Perspective -2.5 3.5 2.5 1

Confluence Investment Management -2 2 -0.5 unch

Energy Management Institute -2 2.5 3 1

Excel Futures -3.2 1.6 2.7 0.3

Frost & Sullivan -1.5 -2 2 0.25

IAF Advisors 2 3 2.5 n/a

Price Futures Group -3 -2 1 1

Ritterbusch and Associates 1.2 2.4 1.5 -1

Schneider Electric -0.5 0.75 1.5 0.25

Tradition Energy -2.5 2.8 -1 1

AVERAGE -1.4 1.3 1.6 0.5





(Figures in millions of barrels except for refining capacity, which is reported in percentage points. For analysts providing forecasts in a range, the average of the upper and lower ends of the range is used.)




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At 2:00 pm EDT the US will release their Interest Rate. Expected to increase from 0.25 to 0.50. Set it up on USDJPY or any other USD pair with a trigger of 0.25. The statement may provide some volatility as well as the Press Conference at 2:30 pm. You can watch it live here: http://www.bloomberg.com/live




At 4:45 pm EDT New Zeland will release GDP q/q. Expected at 0.8 after a prior of 0.4. Set it up on NZDUSD with a trigger of 0.3 or higher.




Good luck everybody!